All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied on the better than expected NFP jobs report early Thursday, but gains were pared into the close before the holiday weekend. Stock futures are higher Sunday night but the NQ and E-mini may be finishing an EW 5-waves up from 6/28 – we could see volatility on Monday. Crude oil is testing last week’s resistance at $40.50 Sunday night but could still punch up to the $41.44 R1 pivot on Monday. Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and may have started a B-Wave rally that could test $1800 on Monday. The USD declined in an EW 5-waves down into Thursday and may be rolling over again early Monday.

7/05/20 (Commentary for Sunday)
The SPX rallied early Thursday after the NFP jobs report but finished the session weak. The Option Premium Ratio gave us back-to-back values of .86 and a short-term sell signal on Thursday. The E-mini and NQ futures may be finishing 5-waves up from 6/28 on Sunday evening – we could see corrective action on Monday. Mercury retrograde is in force this week and that will make trading very tricky – breakouts or breakdowns may be quickly reversed in the SPX. Crude oil is testing last week’s high at $40.50 Sunday night, but we could punch higher to the $41.44 R1 pivot on Monday. Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction at $1766 early Thursday and then spiked higher after the positive NFP jobs report – a pullback Sunday night may reverse higher early Monday in a B-Wave retest of $1800. The USD gave us EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart into Thursday and then just a corrective bounce – we may be rolling over again early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down that finished on 6/26. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold finished an EW a-b-c decline early Thursday on the hourly and then reversed sharply higher after the positive NFP jobs report – we may see a B-Wave test of $1800 on Monday. The GDX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on Thursday’s close. Seasonality runs strongly positive for gold in early July.

• Stocks – The SPX rallied after the positive NFP jobs report but gave up much of the gains into the close. However, the E-mini is rallying to an EW 5-waves up Sunday evening on the hourly chart from 6/28 and may start a correction on Monday.
  
• Gold – Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and reversed up strong – we may see a B-Wave test of $1800 on Monday.
  
• Silver – Silver also finished a correction early Thursday and may be coiling for a B-Wave test of $18.85 on Monday.
  
• Bonds – Bonds finished a 5-wave rally from its breakout and started pulling back – we could test 177’14 on Monday before reversing higher.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil continues to test last week’s high at $40.50 but could punch up to $41.44 on Monday.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 97.8 at Tuesday’s open and gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Thursday – we may be rolling over again early Monday with a target of 96.6.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/6 and 7/8.