All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: A strong Chinese stock rally lifted global markets and gave US markets a gap-up open that held up into the close. We still believe that the E-mini has finished 5-waves up from 6/28 into today’s turn window and that could bring a correction on Tuesday. The lowest CBOE equity put/call ratio since early June and a twenty-point drop in the Option Premium Ratio also argue for a pullback. Crude oil rallied to $41.08 pre-market Monday but fell quickly to test the S1 Pivot at $40.20 before rebounding. Gold rallied up to test $1800 and appears to be coiling for another leg up. The USD declined in an EW 5-waves down into Thursday and continued to decline impulsively into Monday.

7/06/20 (Commentary for Monday)
A huge move in the Shanghai Index got global stock markets rolling overnight and the SPX opened and closed strong. Still, it appears to us that the E-mini has completed 5-waves up on the hourly from the 6/28 low and our option-based sentiment indicators argue that we made a short-term high in today’s turning point window. We must remember that Mercury retrograde is in force this week and that will make trading very tricky – breakouts or breakdowns may be quickly reversed in the SPX and other markets. Crude oil tested $41.08 early Monday and pulled back to test the S1 pivot at $40.12 late Monday. Gold rallied to test $1800 Monday and continues to coil under $1800 for another run higher. The USD gave us EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart into Thursday and then just got a corrective bounce. We declined impulsively into Monday as the USD continues its slide.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold finished an EW a-b-c decline early Thursday on the hourly and then reversed sharply higher after the positive NFP jobs report – we got a test of $1800 on Monday but gold continues to coil below $1800 suggesting that there is more rally to come.

• Stocks – The Chinese stock market led global markets higher overnight Sunday and the US markets followed along despite the increase in COVID-19 cases in several states. The E-mini has now completed 5-waves up on the hourly chart into today’s turn window and our option sentiment indicators are arguing for a pullback on Tuesday.
  
• Gold – Gold tested $1800 on Monday but refused to pull back much – we are now coiling just below $1800 which suggests another rally attempt early Tuesday.
  
• Silver – Silver made a B-Wave test of last week’s high($18.85) and appears to be pulling back in a C-Wave early Tuesday.
  
• Bonds – Bonds tested 177’14 early Monday and is bouncing higher to test the R1 pivot at 178’22 early Tuesday.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil is pulling back and testing the S1 pivot at $40.12 early Tuesday.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 97.8 at Tuesday’s open and gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Thursday – we declined impulsively again into Monday and tested 96.6. A daily close below 96.6 would confirm a downtrend.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/6 and 7/8.