All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: CAUTION! The SPX made a new ATH at 6945.77 on 12/26 and then has given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly into Wednesday. We have turned short-term BEARISH on the SPX. The Option Premium Ratio has given us a back-to-back reading of 0.77 on 12/26 that is also a SELL SIGNAL. The extremely low put/call ratio on SILJ (~9740 puts/1,270,000 calls) seen on 12/26 was a warning to the silver/gold market that sold off hard on Sunday night and resumed its selloff on Wednesday. We are looking to raise cash on Friday, 1/2 and Monday, 1/5. How the SPX and gold/silver trades into January 5 will dominate our thinking into Q1 2026. The VIX could be tracing out an EW 1-2, i-ii to the upside and could spike to give the SPX a slap in the face going into the New Year. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important peak in the SPX and in Q1 2026 – gold/silver may have already made an important peak on 12/28. Our current investment positions were updated on the 12/31 close: 50% cash, 0% QQQ, 15% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/30 to include: 100% cash, 0% SLV, 0% SILJ, and 0% Barrick.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn windows for this week are 12/29-12/30 and 1/2-1/5, the Full Moon Timing Window.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a 3-wave correction into Monday and may have started another leg into the 1/5-1/6 turn window which should give us a new ATH. We saw very high “short volume” on SLV and AGQ for Friday and Monday and believe that a further short squeeze in silver could give us a test of the overnight Sunday high at $82.67. How the SPX and gold/silver trades into January 5 will dominate our thinking into Q1 2026. The VIX is giving us a possible EW 1-2, i-ii count on the daily chart and could spike to give the SPX a slap in the face going into the New year. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important peak in the SPX and gold/silver sometime in Q1 2026. Our current investment positions were updated on the 12/26 close: 30% cash, 0% QQQ, 15% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/29 to include: 50% cash, 50% SLV, 0% SILJ, and 0% Barrick.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn windows for this week are 12/29-12/30 and 1/2-1/5, the Full Moon Timing Window.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finally made a new ATH above 6920 early Wednesday and the CBOE put/call ratio remains elevated in holiday trading. The VIX looks 5-waves down on the daily chart and ready for a bounce – the SPX could see a selloff into yearend, so we are cautious here. The GDP report for Q3 came it at 4.3% early Tuesday and that supported the market. The Fed announcement of both a $40B/month QE to dampen volatility in the repo market as well as a 25-bps rate cut in the Fed rate is “bullish juice” for the SPX going into 2026. However, stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we will continue to favor commodity stocks and DJIA stocks and look for money flow from the MAG-7 into Russell 2000 stocks. Silver and gold made new ATHs overnight at $72.75 and $4565, respectfully. Our current investment positions were last updated on the 11/28 close: 20% cash, 5% QQQ, 20% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/15 to include: 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% SILJ, and 25% Barrick.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 12/22-12/23.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to decline on Wednesday, may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart, and triggered a SPY “reversion to mean” system that we follow to the BUY side. We were early on our bullish call on Tuesday night but are now looking for the SPX to rally into the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window and make a new ATH above 6920. The CPI inflation report early Thursday should be a market catalyst. The Fed announcement of both a $40B/month QE to dampen volatility in the repo market as well as a 25-bps rate cut in the Fed rate is “bullish juice” for the SPX going into 2026. However, stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we will continue to favor commodity stocks and DJIA stocks. The Option Premium Ratio rose from 0.50 to 0.80 on Wednesday’s close and this looks like the setup for another bullish “island reversal” pattern, which is short-term bullish for the SPX. Silver made a new ATH at $67.16 near Wednesday’s close, just a pullback into the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window would be bullish. The Mars ingress early Monday only gave us a brief consolidation in the PM sector, and the January fractal patterns for the SPX and silver call for more rally into yearend, Our current investment positions were last updated on the 11/28 close: 20% cash, 5% QQQ, 20% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/15 to include: 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% SILJ, and 25% Barrick.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn windows for this week are 12/15-12/16 and the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Friday and that could give us some stock market consolidation into Monday/Tuesday. However, we see a possibility of a new run to a new SPX ATH above 6920 by the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window. The Fed announcement of both a $40B QE to dampen volatility in the repo market as well as a 25 bps rate cut in the Fed rate is bullish for the stock market going into 2026, however, stock selection will be key going into 2026 and we will continue to favor commodity stocks and DJIA stocks. Our Option Premium Ratio has given us a series of bullish “island reversal’ patterns that argues for a new ATH by the second half of December. Silver gave us an ATH at $65.08 early Friday before a correction set in – silver had a 34-wk step out from the 4/7 low last week and looks 5-waves up on the weekly chart – we could see some consolidation for a few days this week. The January fractal patterns for the SPX and silver argue for more rally into yearend, but the Mars ingress early Monday could give us some consolidation in the PM sector going into the 12/19 New Moon. Our current investment positions were last updated on the 11/28 close: 20% cash, 5% QQQ, 20% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/10 to include: 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% SILJ, and 25% Barrick.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn windows for this week are 12/15-12/16 and the 12/19-12/22 NEW Moon.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continues to consolidate into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. A G3 solar storm is striking the Earth which can lead to SPX weakness. Our bias, however, is bullish for a year-end rally and we are inclined to buy the SPX if the Fed gives a 25 bps rate cut and the stock market sells off. Our Option Premium Ratio has given us a series of bullish “island reversal’ patterns that argues for a new ATH in December. The SPX is giving us just a 3-wave SPX pullback into Fed Wednesday and this is a bullish setup for the stock market. Stan Harley’s superb cycle work for the SPX argued for a correction low on the last week in November, but it came in early on 11/20 at the NYSE market breadth low. Silver gave us another ATH overnight Tuesday at $62 and looks higher after the Fed. Our current investment positions were last updated on the 11/28 close: 20% cash, 5% QQQ, 20% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on Tuesday to include: 50% cash, 25% SLV, 0% SILJ, and 25% XOM.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 12/10 – Fed Wednesday.