All Star Market Timing

Stock market timing with Elliott/Taucher/Gann/Cadbury methods and astro-finance outlook on the financial markets and is dedicated to the All Stars of Market Timing – R. N. Elliott, W. D. Gann, Frank Taucher and Chris Cadbury and many others that have influenced my market methodology.

recent posts

about

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – April 8, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The over-the-top Trump rhetoric towards Iran on Tuesday told us that a turn was close so we bought some TQQQ and SBSW. On Wednesday, the SPX gave us one of its biggest rally days and every sector was up except for energy.  If the SPX can take out 6805, a move to an ATH at 7150 is possible but we are cautious. Our work is focused on another potential low around 4/20-4/21 and we feel that oil prices could remain elevated for months – by just surviving, Iran is getting the best of the US. The US/Iran war has got a shaky cease fire for now and crude oil is back to $97. Our view is that the process of negotiations will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold bounced into the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon – we still hold a core position in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/7 close: 20% cash, 0% SLV, 20% QQQ, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/7 to include: 35% cash, 10% QQQ, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 4/6-4/7.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – April 5, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a high for the week into the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon and then pulled back into Thursday.  On Thursday’s close we saw signs of extreme fear in our option indicators. With Trump’s over-the-top rhetoric over the weekend against Iran, we are looking for a potential trading low early Monday in the SPX and GDX. News on the US/Iran war is calling the shots on global markets and the SPX could still test lows going into 4/20-4/21. The US/Iran war is continuing and no cease fire is in sight. The price of crude is testing  $115 Sunday evening.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish. However, Trump’s vulgar rhetorical blast against Iran may be telegraphing another TACO moment (turnaround) moment for the global financial markets early this week. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold bounced into the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon – we still hold a core position in the junior miners –the GDX is showing relative strength against the SPX here. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/2 close: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/2 to include: 45% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 4/6-4/7.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – April 1, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX bounced for a few days from late Monday into Wednesday, but the RALLY IS CORRECTIVE. Today’s Full Moon is a big turn window in our work and we are looking for lower lows in the SPX into the next week. We saw many money managers on CNBC dumping CVX and XOM and rebuying the Mag-7 stocks – WRONG. The US/Iran war is continuing and no cease fire is in sight. The price of crude is rebounding after Trump’s address Wednesday night that was lacking in any new specifics on the war.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another SPX down leg into the Easter holiday weekend before the next oversold bounce. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into 3/23 – we still hold a core position in the junior miners – we are looking for the GDX to show relative strength against the SPX. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/1 close: 45% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/1 to include: 65% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 4/1-4/2.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – March 29, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX was hit hard again on Friday and looks to open down again early Monday. The price of crude is driving the markets as the US/IRAN feel each other out on a dialogue of talking points.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term – the gold stocks actually rallied on Friday, and gold and silver actually held their 3/23 lows while the SPX kept going lower into Friday. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another SPX down leg into the 4/1 Full Moon before the next oversold bounce. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into 3/23 – we still hold a core position in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/27 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/27 to include: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 4/1-4/2.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 26, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and the PM sector got hit hard on the rise in crude oil prices and the news from Iran. The bounce in the SPX and PM sector from Monday is being reversed down with lower lows ahead. AS we predicted Tuesday night, we saw the SPX trading under 6500 and probably heading to 6200. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another more SPX down before the next oversold bounce next week. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into Sunday evening – we still hold a core position in the junior miners which we have tried to hedge with IWM puts. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/24 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 10% SLB, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/23-3/24.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 24, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The Mercury retrograde cycle ended on 3/21 and the SPY made a trading low Sunday evening. However, our bias is that the rally in the SPX and PM sector is just a 3-wave correction that could hold up into early Wednesday before taking the SPX back to test its low. At this point, we could see the SPX below 6500 again going into Friday. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another SPX spike down by Thursday. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is not comfortable with. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into Sunday evening – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/20 to include: 80% cash, 10% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/23-3/24.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – March 22, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX remains in a post-Fed Day slam down that could bottom by Tuesday and provide us a trading low. We did recommend raising cash for this event and believe that the SPX will see a trading low by Tuesday. At that point, we could see the SPX below 6500 in our 3/24-3/25 turn window. and the PM sector at a tradable low. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-expiration SPX spike down to 6200 by Tuesday. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike into early next week – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is  comfortable with. The SPX and NDX closed below their 200-dmas on Friday. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window on Thursday – we still hold a core position in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/23-3/24.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 19, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appears to be in a post-Fed Day slam down that should continue through quad witching expiration. We did recommend raising cash for this event and believe that the worst will be over by Tuesday. At that point, we could see the SPX below 6500 in our 3/24-3/25 turn window. and the PM sector at a tradable low. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the market swoon this week. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-expiration SPX swoon. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike into early next week – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is comfortable with. We could see a plunge down through the 200-dma into expiration. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window on THursday – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 17, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a second rally say in a row into the 3/17-3/19 New Moon Timing Day. However, we are concerned about a post-Fed Day slam down in the SPX and are being very defensive. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for a market swoon this week. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-Fed plunge tomorrow. Accordingly, we are raised cash and will watch the market closely on Fed Wednesday.  It is important to keep powder dry here in this market with all the risk factors present. We could see a plunge down through the 200-dma after Powell’s address tomorrow. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window today – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – March 15, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX continued to correct down into Friday. The crude oil trade continues to drive the stock market. The SPX looks like it wants to test its 200-dma at 6600 this week around our Wednesday/Thursday turn window which includes the New Moon on 3/18 and a Fed Day.  Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market finds more clarity with the US/Iran war – it is important to keep powder dry here in this market. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for multiple stock market indices this week. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the Full Moon and were sold down last week as the PM stocks have began to underperform the metals – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.