Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off into early Tuesday’s New Moon/solar eclipse and then rebounded. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on 2/12 and also corrected into the New Moon on Tuesday. We were looking at the 2/17-2/18 New Moon/ solar eclipse as being a potential turn for both the SPX and gold/silver and so far the reversal higher lacks conviction. Geo-political fears of another US strike on Iran gave the market a mild selloff on Thursday as crude oil spiked higher. However, in the bigger picture, the SPX may still be making a “rounding top” here with the XLF topping on I/6/26 and the XLE rotating into leadership on 2/4/26. Silver made a lower low early Tuesday at $71.82 and then reversed up impulsively, however, the volume lacks conviction. The rotation of the XLE into a market leadership position favored our oil stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB last week but we are turning cautious and expect a near-term correction. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 and that could happen close to the 2/28 planetary stellium. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 1/30 close: 20% cash, 0% SLV, 10% DIA, 10% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/6 to include: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 10% SILJ, 0% Barrick, 20% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18, the New Moon/solar eclipse.
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