Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off last week and that decline could continue into early Tuesday’s New Moon/solar eclipse. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Thursday and is correcting into Tuesday. We are looking at the 2/17-2/18 New Moon/ solar eclipse as being a potential turn for both the SPX and gold/silver. However, in the bigger picture, the SPX may still be making a “rounding top” here with the XLF topping on I/6/26 and the XLE rotating into leadership on 2/4/26. Silver is making a lower low overnight Monday at $72.50 and that could be exceeded into early Tuesday’s New Moon. The rotation of the XLE into a market leadership position favored our oil stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB last week but we are turning cautious. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 and that could happen close to the 2/17-2/18 turn window. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 1/30 close: 20% cash, 0% SLV, 10% DIA, 10% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/6 to include: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 10% SILJ, 0% Barrick, 20% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18, the New Moon/solar eclipse.
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