All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Good news on vaccine development and an ISM manufacturing report that exceeded expectations at 52.6% shot the SPX to highs for the week. The NFP jobs report pre-market Thursday will be a big market catalyst – our bias is for a big rally day. The Option Premium Ratio shot up to 1.1 on Tuesday and that argues for continued melt up in the SPX. Crude oil continues to grind higher in a choppy movement – we are looking for a big run higher into the Full Moon weekend that could surpass $41.68. Gold typically declines into the NFP jobs report early Thursday and we dropped $40 on Wednesday – we are expecting at least a B-Wave test of $1804 on Thursday.

7/01/20 (Commentary for Wednesday)
The weaker USD has helped propelled important commodities like crude oil, copper and gold higher in the 2^nd quarter and this has favored commodity stocks. We believe that Friday was an important corrective low in the SPX and Thursday’s pre-market NFP jobs report could be a catalyst for a big run higher. Crude oil has been giving us a choppy rally from early Monday, but we are still looking for a run into the Full Moon weekend that could eclipse $41.68. Gold gave us a sharp $40 correction on Wednesday before the NFP jobs report, but we are expecting at least a B-Wave test of $1804 by Thursday/Friday. The USD is giving us an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart from Tuesday’s early high at 97.80 – this is bullish for commodities.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down that finished on 6/26. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold broke out above $1800 and tested $1804 before tracking sideways into Wednesday. We may see a pullback into the Fed minutes Wednesday afternoon. The GDX made a breakout above 35. Seasonality goes strongly positive for gold in early July.

• Stocks – The NFP report pre-market Thursday is key – a better than expected report could give us a big run up into the holiday weekend.
  
• Gold – Gold gave us its typical decline into the Fed minutes and the NFP jobs report – we are looking for a retest of $2004 by Thursday/Friday.
  
• Silver – Silver stocks continue to pull silver higher – we could see a run into the Full Moon weekend.
  
• Bonds – Bonds finished a 5-wave rally from its breakout and started pulling back – we could test the S1 support pivot at 177’14.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil continues its choppy rally – a break above $41.68 is possible into the Full Moon Weekend.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 97.8 at Tuesday’s open and is giving us 5-waves down on the hourly chart – this is a boost for commodities.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/29 and 7/1.