All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX finished Monday at a new closing high in the New Moon Timing Window, but we got a sell signal in our Option Premium Ratio indicator which makes us cautious going into Tuesday. Monday was a 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/9 high and we may have seen a short-term top today. Crude oil is making a new recovery high at $41.24 Monday night– this is bullish. Gold tested the $1789 4/14 high Monday but left a Doji (indecision) candlestick – the GDX gave us a gap higher that wasn’t filled – we could see a pullback into Wednesday. The USD broke above 97.7 Sunday evening in a 3-wave corrective bounce but fell impulsively on Monday – did we finish an EW a-b-c bounce higher on the hourly chart?

6/22/20 (Commentary for Monday)
The NDX made a new closing high on Monday, and this may be the end of a B-Wave test of the 6/10 high. Market internals appeared to weaken Monday as the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-dma continues to drop below 50% into Monday, and the E-mini only traced out a 3-wave correction from late Friday into Monday. Crude oil tested $41.24 on Monday evening and only gave us a 3-wave correction – this is bullish. Gold and silver made correction lows on Thursday and reversed higher into Monday –gold tested 4/14 high at $1789 but ended the day with a Doji candlestick which indicates uncertainty. The USD tested 97.77 Sunday evening on a double zig-zag corrective bounce – is this a corrective high? The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is bullish for the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish “cup and handle” into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top today.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to test the 4/14 high at $1789 while gold stocks (GDX) gapped up above its down trendline. Gold finished Monday with a Doji (indecision candle) which allows for more pullback into Wednesday.

• Stocks – The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from early 6/16 to late Friday – then we got a 3-wave bounce into Monday’s New Moon Timing Window – we may have seen a short-term high today.
  
• Gold – Gold coiled into early Thursday and broke higher to test the 4/14 high at $1789 but ended the day with a Doji candlestick – the break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
  
• Silver – Unlike gold, silver failed to take out its pre-market high for a “bearish divergence” and pulled back into the close. However, the SIL(silver stocks) remained strong which is bullish for the PM sector.
  
• Bonds – Bonds are 5-waves higher since early 6/16 on the hourly chart and continue to look bullish.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil made a new recovery high at $41.24 Monday night before a 3-wave correction which is bullish for higher prices.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a double zig-zag corrective bounce Sunday night and turned down impulsively on Monday. The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.