All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX recovered from Peter Navarro’s post-market comments Monday but ended up closing hard late today. The sell signals we got on Monday are keeping us a little cautious here. Monday was a 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/9 high and we may have seen a short-term top today early in the week. Crude oil tested $41.63 after tracing out 5-waves higher on the hourly chart – this is also suggestive of a stock market pullback. Gold tested $1791.8 late Tuesday – a high for the year. The weight of several Dark Pool prints in GLD and SLV late Tuesday argue for a potential breakout on Wednesday. The GDX continued its rally and the GDX/GLD continued to move higher which is bullish for the PM sector. The USD continued to fall and traced out 5-waves down on Tuesday before a bounce.

6/23/20 (Commentary for Tuesday)
The SPX and NDX recovered from Peter Navarro’s bearish comments late Monday and gave us a gap-up open on Tuesday with the help of AAPL. However, stocks came in for a hard close which makes us cautious after the “sell signals” we got on Monday. Market internals weakened further on Tuesday as the McClellan Oscillator went negative during the day. After 5-waves higher on the hourly chart, crude oil tested $41.63 pre-market Tuesday and sold off during the day which also suggested some market weakness lies ahead. After a 3-wave correction from Monday’s high, gold powered up Tuesday and made highs for the year at $1791.8 in the evening – large Dark Pool prints in silver and gold came in near the close today and argue for a “breakout attempt” on Wednesday. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly and touched 96.38 before a bounce – the USD has started a downtrend.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish “cup and handle” into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on Tuesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and silver gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to a new high for the year at $1791.8 while the GDX/GLD ratio continues to move higher – this is bullish action.

• Stocks – The SPX and NDX gapped up today and rallied on negative market breadth early – we closed hard late in the day. We are cautious here with financials not leading.
  
• Gold – Gold pulled back correctively from Monday’s high and then made a new high for the year at $1791.8 – late Dark Pool prints in GLD Tuesday afternoon argue for a breakout attempt early Wednesday. The break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
  
• Silver – Silver stocks(SIL) are leading the metal higher here and late Dark Pool prints today in SLV argue for a breakout attempt on Wednesday.
  
• Bonds – Bonds may be finishing an EW a-b-c correction on Tuesday night.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil made a new recovery high at $41.63 early Tuesday before a reversal down.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a double zig-zag corrective bounce Sunday night and turned down impulsively on Monday. The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.