All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made its high for the week early Friday before declining into the close. However, the E-mini has only declined in 3-waves from early Tuesday into Sunday evening and is bouncing into Monday. Our bias is for another leg up in the SPX to finish a B-Wave off the 6/15 low. Our Big Picture is that the SPX is blowing off in a final 5^th wave higher in the bull market that started in March 2009 – the irrational exuberance is rivaling what we witnessed in the first half of 2000. The SPX could blast to a new SPX high above 3400 in the next six weeks, but we could see some volatility in the near term. Crude oil tested 40.6 on Friday and is only correcting in 3-waves into early Monday – this is bullish. Gold tested $1777 early Sunday evening and is staging a breakout – a break above the R1 pivot at $1782 early Monday would be bullish. The USD broke above 97.7 Sunday evening – did we finish an EW a-b-c bounce higher on the hourly chart?

6/21/20 (Commentary for Sunday)
Friday was a choppy, volatile day and the SPX made a high for the week early in the session before selling off into the close. Market internals appear to be weakening as the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-dma dropped sharply below 50% on Friday, but the E-mini only traced out a 3-wave correction from early Tuesday into Sunday evening and is bouncing early Monday. Crude oil tested $40.6 on Friday and is only correcting in 3-waves into Monday – this is bullish. Gold and silver made correction lows on Thursday and reversed higher into Friday – gold tested $1777 Sunday evening and is close to a breakout. The USD tested 97.77 Sunday evening in a 3-wave bounce – is this a corrective high? The USD appears on track to weaken substantially against the Yen.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish “cup and handle” into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 may have seen the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the SPX– we could see a B-Wave bounce into the coming week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us important lows on 6/18 and are coiling to break out early Monday. A break above gold $1775 early Monday could kickstart a melt up into mid-July.

• Stocks – The SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from early Tuesday to late Friday – the E-mini is rallying higher early Monday.
  
• Gold – Gold coiled into early Thursday and broke higher after the New Moon/solar eclipse – a move above $1777 early Monday would be a breakout.
  
• Silver – Silver is taking out $17.9 Sunday night and this could be the start of a run up into July.
  
• Bonds – Bonds are 5-waves higher since early 6/16 on the hourly chart and look bullish.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil tested $40.6 on Friday but only gave us a 3-wave correction past the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a 3-wave move higher – is this a corrective high? The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.