All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our indicators predicted a short-term high in the 8/13-8/16 turn window and then a pullback into 8/19 when Uranus turns retrograde – the SPX made a low early on 8/19 and reversed higher into the Full Moon Weekend. We may have ended the SPX correction and are reversing higher for a test of the highs – how we trade on Monday is key. We kicked up our cash levels to 60% as we approach negative seasonality in September and the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from the great 1987 crash – we are planning to be 80% in cash by Labor Day. Overall, we still view the US economic rebound as fragile here and vulnerable to more Delta-induced economic slowdowns. Bitcoin is testing 50,000 Sunday night – will it draw money away from the PM sector here again? Crude oil found support at $61.74 on Friday and then bounced above its Person’s pivot Sunday night which is bullish. Gold coiled sideways into the 8/20-8/23 Full Moon Timing Window which is bullish, but the GDX continues to sub-divide down into major support. Both the GDX and the GDXJ were testing major horizontal support into Friday and need to show some reversal signal higher on Monday in order to get the PM sector rallying – we’ll see. The USD tested highs for the year at 93.7 on Friday and started a correction.

8/22/21 (Commentary for Sunday) Our indicators argued for a short-term high in the SPX on 8/16 and then a pullback into 8/19 – the SPX reversed higher on Thursday and rallied higher into the Full Moon/Jupiter conjunction on the weekend. How we trade on Monday is key for the SPX and NDX. We raised our cash levels to 60% as US Excess Liquidity rolls over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio this fall – we plan to go to 80% cash by Labor Day. Big tech led the rebound rally on Thursday/Friday as the recovery stocks meandered into monthly expiration. The US 10-yr rate got a bounce on FOMC day as the majority of the Fed appears to be in favor of tapering the purchase of MBS and Treasury bonds going into the Jackson hole meeting – rising long rates could still be the catalyst for the fall decline if the Fed’s “tapering plan” goes awry. Crude oil found support at $61.74 late Friday and turned higher for a run into the Full Moon weekend. Gold is coiled sideways into the 8/20-8/23 Full Moon Timing Window – there is still a bullish case here present despite all the gloom, but the GDX needs to make a good reversal off of major support on Monday. The USD tested highs for the year at 93.7 Friday before sub-dividing down hard into the weekend.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high in our 8/13-8/16 turn window before giving us just a 3-wave correction into the 8/19 turn day and a reversal higher. We raised our cash level to 60% as the US Excess Liquidity rolls over – the lofty S&P 500 P/E ratio could get “compressed” this fall. We plan to be 80% cash by Labor Day.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold coiled sideways into the high-energy 8/20-8/23 turn window which is bullish. However, weakness in the GDX is tempering bullish enthusiasm for the PM sector. We’ll see if the GDX can muster a reversal signal off major support on Monday.

• Stocks – The SPX and NDX only gave us a 3-wave correction into early Thursday before a reversal higher. We may be starting a strong rebound to test the recent SPX high.  The NYMO (NYSE McClellan Oscillator) closing below its Bollinger band on Wednesday was a bullish signal.
• Gold – Gold is coiling sideways into the powerful 8/20-8/23 3-star geo-cosmic turn window which is bullish and the GDX and GDXJ are both testing major horizontal support levels.  The GDX needs to give a bullish reversal signal on Monday or Bitcoin will draw money away from the PM sector again.
• Silver – Silver needs to close above its 9-ema on its daily chart to look bullish.
• Bonds – The US bonds continue to hold up even though the majority of Fed governors favor a “tapering” at this week’s Jackson hole meeting. The US economic recovery appears to be faltering as the Delta variant spreads.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil found support at $61.74 Friday and reversed higher into the Full Moon – the XLE could get a bounce on Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested highs for the year at 93.7 on Friday before sub-dividing down into the weekend.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/23, the Full Moon Timing Window and 8/27, the Fed Jackson Hole meeting.