Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: Our indicators predicted a short-term high in the 10/13-10/16 turn window and then a pullback into 8/19 when Uranus turns retrograde – that is what we got. We may have seen a rebound rally take root on this morning’s low and it could run into the Full Moon/Jupiter conjunction over the weekend. Friday is a monthly option expiration and we are expecting volatility. We kicked up our cash levels to 60% as we approach negative seasonality in September and the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from the great 1987 crash. Overall, we still view the US economic rebound as fragile here and vulnerable to more Delta-induced economic slowdowns. Bitcoin bounced up to test 47,000 overnight Thursday and invalidated a short-term bearish pattern. Crude oil found support at its S2 pivot and then bounced above its Person’s pivot overnight Thursday which is bullish. Gold is correcting sideways into the 8/20-8/23 Full Moon Timing Window which is bullish, but the GDX continues to sub-divide down. Both the GDX and the GDXJ are testing major horizontal support. The USD is testing 93.60 overnight Thursday and this is pressuring the PM sector.
8/19/21 (Commentary for Thursday) Our indicators argued for a short-term high in the SPX on Monday and a pullback into 8/19 before a rally into the weekend when Jupiter conjuncts the Full Moon – so far, this analysis appears to be on track and we may have started a strong rebound rally this morning. We raised our cash levels to 60% as US Excess Liquidity rolls over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio this fall. The tech stocks led the rebound rally this morning as the recovery stocks sputtered. The US 10-yr rate got a bounce on FOMC day as the majority of the Fed appears to be in favor of tapering the purchase of MBS and Treasury bonds – rising long rates could still be the catalyst for the fall decline if the Fed’s “tapering plan” goes awry. Crude oil found support at $62.41 and turned higher for a run into the Full Moon weekend. Gold is correcting into the 8/20-8/23 Full Moon Timing Window – there is still a bullish case here present despite all the gloom. The USD is testing 93.6 overnight and that is pressuring the PM sector.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high in our 8/13-8/16 turn window before a correction into the 8/19 turn day. We raised our cash level to 60% as the US Excess Liquidity rolls over – the lofty S&P 500 P/E ratio could get “compressed” this fall.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is correcting sideways into the high-energy 8/20-8/23 turn window which is bullish. However, weakness in the GDX is tempering bullish enthusiasm for the PM sector. We’ll see if an undercut low in the GDX early Friday can give us an important low.
- Stocks – The SPX and NDX gave us a gap-down open but the tech stocks led us back. We may be starting a strong rebound into the weekend Full Moon which conjuncts Jupiter. With the NYMO (NYSE McClellan Oscillator) closing below its Bollinger band Wednesday, we are expecting more rally into the weekend.
- Gold – Gold is correcting sideways into the powerful 8/20-8/23 3-star geo-cosmic turn window which is bullish and the GDX and GDXJ are both testing major horizontal support levels. This is a good time for stink bids on NEM and GOLD.
- Silver – Silver needs to stay above $23.08 to remain bullish.
- Bonds – The US 10-yr bond rate gave us a 3-wave correction into Thursday – we have held off on buying TNX so far.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil found support at $62.41 and reversed higher – it could still make a run into the weekend Full Moon.
- Dollar Index – The USD is testing 93.6 overnight and is pressuring the PM sector.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 8/16 and 8/19.
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