Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX remains in a post-Fed Day slam down that could bottom by Tuesday and provide us a trading low. We did recommend raising cash for this event and believe that the SPX will see a trading low by Tuesday. At that point, we could see the SPX below 6500 in our 3/24-3/25 turn window. and the PM sector at a tradable low. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-expiration SPX spike down to 6200 by Tuesday. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike into early next week – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is comfortable with. The SPX and NDX closed below their 200-dmas on Friday. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window on Thursday – we still hold a core position in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 3/23-3/24.
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