Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX continued to correct down into Friday. The crude oil trade continues to drive the stock market. The SPX looks like it wants to test its 200-dma at 6600 this week around our Wednesday/Thursday turn window which includes the New Moon on 3/18 and a Fed Day. Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market finds more clarity with the US/Iran war – it is important to keep powder dry here in this market. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for multiple stock market indices this week. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the Full Moon and were sold down last week as the PM stocks have began to underperform the metals – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.
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