Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for the 3/9-3/10 turn window to spark a rally in the SPX and the PMs but so far we are disappointed. In our view, the uncertain timeframe of the US/Iran war makes it difficult to price it into the stock market and this is making the SPX hard to trade. Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market has more clarity with the war. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for the SPX into next week. If crude oil remains in the $80s into May, that would still benefit the integrated oils (XOM, CVX and COP). The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold spiked into early Tuesday before selling off into Wednesday – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 3/9-3/10.
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