Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: After a volatile week, where crude oil prices drove the market, the SPX closed weak on Friday which allows a sharp correction down into Monday/Tuesday which our major turn window for the coming week. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could see a test of this average for the SPX on Monday/Tuesday. On Sunday night, crude oil is testing $119.48 which should give us a gap-down open for the SPX on Monday. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this makes us cautious on the longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold were pressured down into Friday and could also spike down into early Monday before a strong bounce. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/06 close: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/6 to include: 80% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 3/9-3/10.
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