Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from the 11/21 low and made a new ATH at 6978.6 on Friday in the 10/9-10/12 turn window – the overnight Sunday price action looked bearish in the ES and NQ but the market moved back higher on Monday morning and we stopped out of some of our “put hedges”. Our plan here is to buy 3-wave corrections in the DIA and the DIA was a buy early Monday. The news from Iran will have us watching the oil sector for some long setups in our favored energy stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB – oil prices are trying to break out upward. How the SPX and gold/silver trade into the 55-day Fibonacci step out from on 1/14 will dominate our thinking later into Q1 2026. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 2026 –XOM/CVX/SLB is coming into a seasonally strong period. Our current investment positions were updated on Friday’s close: 20% cash, 5% SLV, 15% DIA, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 1/7 to include: 30% cash, 10% SLV, 20% SILJ, 0% Barrick, 20% DIA, 20% XOM/SLB.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn windows for this week are 1/11-1/12 and 1/14.
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