Market Observations for the Week: The SPX declined into the 12/16 turn window, undercut 6800, and then tested its 50-dma before reversing higher to close the day with a bullish Doji candlestick. We are now looking for the SPX to rally into the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window and make a new ATH above 6920. The Fed announcement of both a $40B/month QE to dampen volatility in the repo market as well as a 25-bps rate cut in the Fed rate is bullish for the SPX going into 2026. However, stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we will continue to favor commodity stocks and DJIA stocks. The Option Premium Ratio dropped from a closing value of 0.66 on Monday to 0.50 on Tuesday, which is short-term bullish. Silver has given us a rising, bullish coil pattern since Friday and is breaking out overnight Tuesday – this is bullish for a run into the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window. The Mars ingress early Monday only gave us a brief consolidation in the PM sector, and the January fractal patterns for the SPX and silver call for more rally into yearend, Our current investment positions were last updated on the 11/28 close: 20% cash, 5% QQQ, 20% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 12/15 to include: 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% SILJ, and 25% Barrick.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn windows for this week are 12/15-12/16 and the 12/19-12/22 New Moon Timing Window.
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