Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX ignored the government shutdown and made a new ATH at 6731.94 on Thursday. The continued market blowoff is now targeting the 10/6-10/7 Full Moon Timing Window. The NFP jobs data will not be published on Friday because of the government shutdown, but the market has been pricing in additional Fed rate cuts because of the softening of the US labor market. The recent TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL on Monday’s close only came at the end of a consolidating 4th wave pattern and the SPX could now drift higher into our target time zone from 10/9-10/21. We are in October and continue to raise our cash levels for a potential 10% correction later in the month. However, the uptrend in the SPX and gold is still in place, and we are looking for higher SPX and gold prices into October before a significant correction – 10/9 remains our time target, but the 10/21 New Moon is also a possibility. Gold made a new ATH at $3923 early Thursday before a quick correction that gave us a 5.4% intraday correction in the GDX – this could be a sign of bigger volatility to come. In the longer term, the GDX could test $90 by December, and silver could test its ATH at $50 by mid-October. We have preferred to hold BABA over US tech in the last few weeks as Chinese tech catches a bid. Our current investment positions are: 25% cash, 5% QQQ, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/REMX and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on Thursday to include: 25% cash, 0% SLV, 25% GLD, 25% Barrick, and 25% BABA.
TURNING POINT DAY
We have a turn window for this week on 9/28 and 10/3.
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