Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini traced out a minimal EW a-b-c correction from Wednesday evening into Tuesday afternoon before reversing higher into the close. How we trade tomorrow will determine if the correction continues. We have an ISM manufacturing and JOLTS report in the morning and the FOMC minutes in the afternoon that could impact the stock trade. The NDX made a new ATH in December, but the SPX has not so far for a case of possible "bearish divergence". The SPX needs to make a new ATH soon to remove this possible "bearish divergence". The SPX made a rally high in the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window and that statistically implies a higher high by the 1/11/24 New Moon. The year 2024 is the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle and is statistically very bullish. However, our work and other work we respect point to the 1/11/24 New Moon as a potential important high for the SPX in Q1. The NYSE composite has a two-year cycle that is due by mid-January before a steep correction into March. The 10-yr US rate may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today that could be reversed down tomorrow. The VIX may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce and looks like it's in a pattern to test the lows at 11.85 by mid-January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA – we're hanging on to these short shares for potential hard selling by mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.
1/02/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX made a high in the 12/26-12/28 Full Moon Timing Window and gave us a possible EW a-b-c correction into Tuesday afternoon. How we trade on Wednesday will determine the short-term trend of the market – the ISM manufacturing and JOLTS report in the morning and the FOMC report in the afternoon could be market catalysts. The US 10-yr rate may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce on Tuesday and is reversing down. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible correction in the second half of January. Crude oil pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction to test $70.37 on Tuesday evening.
Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Tuesday's close – we need to see an impulsive reversal up on the TNX to get a bigger SPX correction in price and time.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $2099 Wednesday evening and continued its C-wave down of an EW a-b-c correction into Tuesday – a strengthening USD and rising rates could continue the pressure down on gold on Wednesday.
Stocks – The SPX traced out a "minimal EW a-b-c correction" into Tuesday afternoon – we need to see a strong reversal up on Wednesday to reconfirm the uptrend.
Gold – Gold tested $2099 Wednesday evening and is now pulling back in a C-Wave that could last until 1/2.
Silver – We expect silver to end its correction by early 1/3 and then bounce above $24.85 by 1/5.
Bonds – The 10-yr rate may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce and is starting to reverse down.
Crude Oil - Crude oil is pulling back to $70.37 Tuesday evening.
Dollar Index – The USD gave us a strong reversal up to 102.15 on Tuesday and pressured the PM sector down.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 1/2.
Leave a Reply