All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX held up today after the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window, but we still expect a pullback into Wednesday – the SPX has a seasonal tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The FANG stocks are holding up well here which is a bullish indication. Bitcoin is testing 22820 overnight and is trying to lead the SPX down in a pre-NFP correction. Crude oil is trading weak and looks to test $90 soon. Gold is testing $1800 overnight which is bullish. The USD is heading down to test its symmetry correction target at 104.3.  

8/01/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX made a higher high today at 4145 but the E-mini has started a correction overnight. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low confirmed a rally extension into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window which carried through into today. Just a simple EW a-b-c SPX correction from today into Wednesday would be bullish for a test of SPX 4300. Bitcoin made its low late Tuesday and traded higher into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window to 24620 – Bitcoin follows the lunar cycle pretty tightly and is trying to lead the E-mini down overnight. Crude oil still looks weak to us so our bias is for a spike down into Tuesday after finishing a weak EW a-b-c bounce into Friday. Gold is testing $1800 overnight and the USD continues to work lower to potentially tag its symmetry correction target at 104.30. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have made a short-term peak on Monday at 4145 and could correct into Wednesday before a run higher to 4300. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is testing $1800 overnight Monday but has a seasonal tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report.  

• Stocks – Despite a negative Q2 GDP number which technically indicates a US recession, the SPX continued its rally into Monday and tested 4145. The FANG stocks are holding up well which is bullish for the market. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week is a wild card for the market.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1800 overnight Monday – we closed above $1785 on Monday and that opened up a test of $1800.
• Silver – Silver really spiked into the New Moon Timing Window and made a higher high on Monday which is a multi-week high.
• Bonds – Bonds powered higher to 145’31 overnight Monday as the 10-yr rate tested 25.84.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished a weak a-b-c bounce to $101.51 on Friday and could down on Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is rolling down to test its symmetry target of 104.3 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/1-8/2.