All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini only bounced correctively Sunday night and prepared us for a possible wave 3 of C down in the SPX. However, after an early head fake down, the SPX rallied into the close. However, Monday’s rally volume was light and the pattern of the rally in the E-mini from Friday’s close still looks corrective – we need to see the SPX take out 3088 to confirm an important low. Crude oil surprised us and rallied from oversold technicals to test $40 again – it is possible that crude oil could make a run higher into the Full Moon Timing Window this weekend and take out $41.63. Gold continued to move sideways from Friday’s high into Tuesday’s testimony from Powell and Mnuchin – a run higher to test $1800 into the Full Moon weekend is possible. The USD bounced higher but continues to hold up around 97.5.

6/29/20 (Commentary for Monday)
The SPX gave us a rally day Monday on the strong housing number, but once again the financials diverged into weakness despite BAC, C, GS, and MS reaffirming their dividends. Still, we need a SPX rally above 3088 to convince us that the correction is over, and the next rally phase is in play. Crude oil tested $40 Monday and could be at the start of a run into the Full Moon weekend. Gold continued its sideways consolidation from Friday’s high into the testimony of Mnuchin/Powell on Tuesday – we may have seen an important low on Friday that could lead to another test of $1800 by Thursday. The USD looks resilient Monday night and looks set to test 97.7 Tuesday morning.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down that may have finished on 6/26. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1754 on Friday and staged a $30 reversal higher into the close – we may have started another leg up to test $1800 by Friday/Saturday’s Full Moon Timing Window. Seasonality goes strongly positive for gold in early July.

• Stocks – After a shaky start, the SPX gave us a rally day which spiked into the close despite weakness in the bank sector. The Powell/Mnuchin testimony Tuesday at noon could be a market mover – a move above SPX 3088 would confirm the correction from 6/9 is over.
  
• Gold – Gold continued a sideways consolidation from Friday’s high – we may have started the next run higher to test $1800 by the weekend.
  
• Silver – Silver continued sideways while the SIL(silver stocks) continues to lead which is bullish for the PM sector.
  
• Bonds – Bonds continue the break-out rally from the wedge last week – TLT may be the play.
  
• Crude Oil –
  Crude oil tested $40 on Monday and we may be coiling for a run into the Full Moon weekend– a break above $41.68 is possible this week.
  
• Dollar Index – The USD remains resilient and is targeting 97.7 by early Tuesday.
  

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/29 and 7/1.