Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: Today was an important day for the SPX and other markets. We got a gap-up open on the SPX on Trump’s trade tweet but the market got sold into right away and also sold off into the close – a weak open and a weak close – the SPX was rallying to test the all-time high at 3027 but ended up selling off into the close to form a Doji candle for the day. Did we just make a B-Wave test of the 7/26 high – if so, we could see a sharp C-Wave down start Friday.
9/12/19 (Commentary for Thursday) Our market bias has been that the SPX could hold up until 10/1 – the 70th anniversary of the communist takeover of the Chinese mainland. However, today’s SPX action could have been just a B-Wave test of the 7/26 going into the Full Moon Timing Window and that could bring us a sharp reversal down Friday. Despite strength in the E-mini futures before the market open, the SPX was sold hard at the open with weak breadth and TRIN>2 – this was another sign of the “big boys selling out”. Did we see just a B-Wave test of the high today? How we trade on Friday will tell us. The fact that crude oil gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Thursday is another sign of market weakness. Gold made new highs to $1566 in a “running B-Wave” corrective pattern, but then came down in a C-Wave that tested $1492 late Tuesday – we may have started a retracement early Thursday into Friday’s Full Moon Timing Window. The USD tested 99 early Thursday before a sharp reversal down – this should be supportive of the PM sector.
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Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Chinese restraint on Hong Kong and playing nice on trade talks may allow the SPX to rally into October, but the SPX may have peaked today going into the Full Moon Timing Window. The markets may be setting up for a reversal around this week’s full moon.
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Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold undercut $1500 late Tuesday and may have started a sharp reversal higher into Friday’s Full Moon Timing Window.
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Stocks – The SPX was sold hard at the open and ended the day with a Doji candle – we may have seen just a B-Wave test of the 7/26 high.
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Gold – Gold undercut $1500 again late Tuesday and may be reversing higher in a bounce into Friday’s Full Moon.
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Silver – Silver is reversing higher with gold Tuesday night and could test $18.60 by Friday.
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Bonds – Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from 8/25 and could be poised for a reversal higher.
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Crude Oil – Crude oil giving us 5-waves down on the hourly into the Full Moon – bearish signal.
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Dollar Index – The USD broke higher to test 99 early Thursday before a sharp reversal down into the evening.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/14, the Full Moon Timing Window.
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