Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: Our indicators are arguing for an SPX consolidation early this week, perhaps into the 9/13-9/14 Full Moon Timing Window. However, the tape looks bullish to us into 10/1 and we are reluctant to work the short side unless we see 5-waves down on the hourly SPX – a move to SPX 3100 is possible. Gold gave us a new high at $1566 as part of a “running B-Wave” corrective pattern but the C-Wave down could give us an undercut of $1510.7 before a bounce into Friday’s Full Moon.
9/08/19 (Commentary for Sunday) Our $TICK and 10-day TRIN indicators are arguing for a consolidation to start Monday in the SPX that could last for a few days. Timely announcements on BREXIT, Hong Kong and US-China trade supported the SPX rally into Friday’s NFP jobs report but some kind of retracement is due. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167’15 and have been correcting sideways – we kicked into a C-Wave down Wednesday evening. Gold made new highs to $1566 in a “running B-Wave” corrective pattern, but then came down in a C-Wave that tested $1510.7 after the NFP jobs report on Friday – taking out $1510.7 on Monday could trigger a big move down. The USD may have given us an EW a-b-c bounce into 98.43 early Monday.
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Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Chinese restraint on Hong Kong and playing nice on trade talks allowed the SPX to rally into Friday’s NFP jobs report. We could see a consolidation early this week into the 9/13-9/14 Full Moon Timing Window before a push to all-time highs above 3027 into the second half of September.
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Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1510.7 Friday to potentially finish a “running B-Wave” correction from 8/25 – a break below $1510, however, would argue for a larger move down.
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Stocks – We expect the SPX to consolidate into early this week before rallying above 3027 by next week. With China playing nice on Hong Kong and US trade talks, the path of least resistance may take us to SPX 3100 by the end of September.
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Gold – Gold must hold $1510.7 into Monday or risk a bigger sub-division down.
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Silver – Silver tested $18.01 Sunday night but should hold up better than gold.
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Bonds – Bonds remain under pressure as the E-mini threatens to go above 2989 Sunday night.
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Crude Oil – Crude oil may be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart into Monday.
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Dollar Index – The USD is giving us a corrective bounce into 99.43 into early Monday.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 9/13-9/14, the Full Moon Timing Window.
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