Market Observations for the Week: The NQ declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart from Wednesday’s close but is getting a big bounce Thursday night after big earnings reports from GOOGL and INTC. Crude oil tested $58 and then pulled back to $55.32 before bouncing. Gold gave us a false break out of a triangle on the hourly chart and reversed down to $1411 – a symmetry correction from $1454 could take us to $1393 before the Fed meeting next week.
7/25/19 (Commentary for Thursday) The NDX pulled back Thursday but big earnings beats from GOOGL and INTC is rallying the NQ Thursday night. The market indices are advancing despite weak breadth numbers which confirms our bias for new highs above SPX 3019 into next week. After a mid-July correction into 7/19, we still have our target of SPX 3100 by August/September – we DO expect the large sideways SPX consolidation pattern from January 2018 to be DECISIVELY taken out this summer before we roll over for a fall correction. Global markets are all about liquidity here and we have long predicted that the Fed will shift back to an easing stance (set to start on 7/31) – a crisis in the European banking system would evoke a quick easing or QE response from the US Fed. Crude oil tested $58 before falling to $55.32 today and then bouncing. Gold gave us a false break out to $1433 and then reversed down to test $1411 – a symmetry correction from $1454 would take us to $1393. The USD hit our target of 98 – higher highs are likely.
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Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX ended a mild wave 4 on the daily chart on 7/19. We are getting close to an important summer high by the 7/31 New Moon and Fed rate-cut day.
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Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A symmetry correction from $1454 targets $1393 before the 7/31 New Moon and Fed rate cut after which we expect a sharp move higher.
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Stocks – The SPX ended its correction late 7/19 and rallied to finish 5-waves up on the rally at Wednesday’s close – just a 3-wave correction Thursday argues for higher highs into next week.
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Gold – Gold tested $1433 before being slammed down to $1411 – a symmetry correction to $1393 is possible into next week.
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Silver – We saw “big prints in SLV in the Dark Pool” last week – this means that silver is moving from “weak hands” to “strong hands” here and should accelerate its move up. A back test to $16.20 is underway. We favor the silver catch up trade over gold here.
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Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $58 and then fell to $55 before bouncing – the trend may still be trending down.
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Bonds – Bonds tested 155’10 and may have ended an EW a-b-c upside correction – we got to 155’08 before reversing down hard.
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Dollar Index – The USD tested 98 on Thursday before a small correction.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 7/22-7/23.
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