Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini made a high early Monday and corrected into the Full Moon/lunar eclipse Tuesday evening with the TRIN-5 giving us an oversold reading of 6.0 – we are now looking for a bounce into Wednesday. Gold continued to pull back into the Full Moon/lunar eclipse and may undercut $1400 Wednesday morning before a reversal higher.
7/16/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX made an all-time high early Monday on weak market breadth and declined into the Full Moon/lunar eclipse late Tuesday afternoon – we ae now looking for a bounce into Wednesday. The TRIN-5 got to an oversold reading of 6.0 on Tuesday and argues for a rebound early Wednesday. We looked for a SPX high on Monday around 3024 before a retracement to 2960 after the 7/16-7/17 Full Moon/lunar eclipse – so far, we’ve held SPX 3000 on this pullback. We still have our target of SPX 3100 by August – we DO expect the large sideways SPX consolidation pattern from January 2018 to be DECISIVELY taken out this summer before we roll over for a fall correction. Global markets are all about liquidity here and we have long predicted that the Fed will shift back to an easing stance at some point this summer – a crisis in the European banking system would evoke a quick easing or QE response from the US Fed. Crude oil tested $61 on 7/10 and may be close to undercutting $57 after the 7/16 Full Moon/lunar eclipse early Wednesday. Gold continues to pullback into Wednesday and may undercut $1400 before a reversal higher. The oversold USD finished an EW a-b-c correction and surged higher to test 97.5 on Tuesday.
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Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is targeting 3024 early Monday and is close to 5-waves up on the hourly chart. We may be getting close to an important summer high by the 7/31 New Moon and Fed rate cut day.
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Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may need to undercut $1400 after the Full Moon/lunar eclipse before we get a reversal higher.
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Stocks – The E-mini pulled back into the Full Moon/lunar eclipse as our TRIN-5 indictor got to an oversold reading of 6.0 – we’re looking for a bounce into Wednesday.
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Gold – Gold is pulling back into the Full Moon/solar eclipse Timing Window and should make a reversal higher by early Wednesday – we may need to undercut $1400 before a pattern completion.
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Silver – We are seeing “big prints in SLV in the Dark Pool” – this means that silver is moving from “weak hands” to “strong hands” here and should accelerate its move up.
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Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $61 on 7/11 and may undercut $57 early Wednesday before a reversal higher in the 7/16-7/17 Full Moon/lunar eclipse Timing Window.
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Bonds – Bonds continue to sub-divide down as rates want to trend higher after hotter than expected CPI and PPI numbers.
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Dollar Index – The USD bounced hard Tuesday and looks to test 98 soon.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 7/16-7/17.
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