All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:   This is a busy news week for the markets with the mid-term elections and a FOMC meeting – we expect the SPX to be rallying on a "grid-lock election" outcome by Wednesday afternoon. On Tuesday the market may try to fill some gaps on the SPX chart from last week at 2685-2710 on the 11/6-11/7 New Moon Timing window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/3. Overall though, we believe that the market has entered a bear market phase (SPX target ~ 2200) and that a potential crash pattern is still in play into late November after a recovery rally phase. 

11/05/18 (Commentary for Monday)  The techs tried to lead the market lower (after Trumps "monopoly talk" on Apple, Amazon and Google) but the oil stocks kept the market supported into the close. Tomorrow is the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/3 and there is a chance of a "gap-fill" in the SPX 2685-2710 range as the market digests some early election returns. However, we expect a "gridlock outcome" which tends to be market bullish and we expect the SPX to be rallying by Wednesday afternoon. We expect some kind of market low early Wednesday (the New Moon is exact at 11:01 AM EST) before a post-election recovery rally starts to SPX 2820.  We are expecting a large 3-wave rally to make a 50%-61% retracement to SPX 2773-2820 by the 11/9-11/12 turn window if we continue to trace out "a potential crash pattern". Rising US rates should continue to plague US equities into 2019 but 5-waves down on the hourly bond chart is calling for a bounce on Tuesday. We believe that the October stock decline is signaling a growth slowdown in the US economy that could last into Q2 2019 while input costs appear to be rising across the board – a stagflationary economy may be at hand which should favor the PM complex. We believe that the 2016-2018 bull phase has come to an end and a correction of that 1100 SPX points move could be 600-800 points. We are also open to the idea that the stock bull market from March 2009 may have peaked but we are taking things one step at a time. We expect November to bring more volatility to global markets and weakening US economic numbers that could result in the Fed passing on a December rate hike – we shall see. We have harped on declining financial liquidity for months here and believe that this is setting us up for a volatile ride into yearend for global markets and into the Spring – the one-two punch of Fed rate hikes and Quantitative tightening is too much for the markets to digest at one time. Crude oil continues to sub-divide down – rallies are sideways and corrective – this confirms that a high has been seen for the year – but natural gas had a big move today on predictions of a cold winter. Gold stocks finished a 5-wave rally from Thursday on today's 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/11 – just a corrective decline into the 11/7 New Moon would be bullish for the PM sector. The USD could still test 97 again – but the Euro is coiling for a break out.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) -  We believe that the SPX is correcting the 1100 SPX rally from 2/8/16 and the SPX could decline 600-800 points by late November with some SHARP RETRACEMENT RALLIES along the way. In the short-term, we expect a tradable low early Wednesday after the elections and a rally to test SPX 2820.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) -   Gold stocks finished a 5-wave rally pattern from 11/1 on the hourly chart on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 9/11 – just a corrective decline the 11/7 New Moon would be bullish.

• Stocks – The SPX may try to fill an open gap at 2675-2710 tomorrow on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/3 on election day, but we expect a rally by Wednesday afternoon.  Our turn window is 10/6-10/7 and includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out and the New Moon.
• Gold - The GDX finished a 5-wave rally from Thursday on today's 55-day Fibonacci step out from 9/11 – just a corrective pullback into the 11/7 New Moon would be bullish.
• Silver – Silver completed a wave 2 pattern on the daily chart Thursday and reversed up strong – we just got a 3-wave pullback into the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/11 low which is bullish.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to sub-divide down even on a weak-USD day – but natural gas got a strong rally today on predictions of a cold winter.
• Bonds – Bonds finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart and should see a bounce on Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD failed to test 97 today and the Euro appears to be coiling for a breakout.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/6-11/7, which includes the New Moon Timing Window.