Category: Uncategorized
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied initially on the NFP but then sold off after pondering the 3% year-over-year wage gains. Wave "b of B" down started and should run into the 11/6-11/7 New Moon Timing window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/3. We expect a post-election rebound in…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: Is the SPX done going down? We need to see a daily close above SPX 2704 to be convinced. We consider today's rally "a dead cat bounce" and are still looking for a test of SPX 2603 on 10/31 (Halloween) or the 11/2 (NFP jobs report). A spike in…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The E-min broke 2450 Monday night and our test of SPX 2700 early Tuesday looks in play. However, a test of 2700 would give us a 5-wave down pattern completion and then a quick bounce back to SPX 2800. It was notable, that the financials(XLF), biotech(XBI), and homebuilders(XHB) may…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: All major US stock indices are 5-waves up on the weekly charts from the Feb 2016 lows – in our view, this 1100 SPX point rally requires a substantial correction in time and price – we’re thinking a 20-25% correction into Q2 2019. In the short term, a divergent…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rolled over today and looks like it wants to retest last week’s low. A divergent test of SPX 2700 on Friday/Monday would qualify as a 5th wave down on the hourly and set up another sharp recovery rally. Our next turn window is 10/24-10/25 and this could…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The SPX held up reasonably well after a rather hawkish Fed minutes today and the rally pattern from Tuesday does not look complete. Patterns and cycles argue for a test of SPX 2850 on Thursday. This is a rollercoaster market and we continue to look for lower lows going…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/3 DJIA high fell on today and it came it as a HIGH. We sold our QQQ calls yesterday so we missed today’s snapback rally despite the buy signals in our Option Premium Ratio and the low, single-digit 52-wk new highs that…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The 13-Day Fibonacci step out from the 10/3 DJIA high falls on Tuesday and it could be a high or low. Our bias: the rally from 10/11 looks like a 4th wave bounce to us on the hourly chart. We need to see more of a “panic signature” in…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: The 8-Day Fibonacci step out from 10/3 gave us a trading bounce on 10/11 – our next turn day to watch is the 13-Day Fibonacci step out on Tuesday – not sure if this will be a high or low – how we trade late Sunday/early Monday will tell…
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Folks, Market Observations for the Week: We are close in time and price to an important low – our Option Premium Ratio (1.63) tested the multi-year high of 1.67 made at the important 2/8/2016 SPX low and that gives us a BUY SIGNAL. Still, we need to see more of a “panic signature” in the…